September brought another cautious month for the Toronto and GTA real estate market, with buyers continuing to weigh improved affordability against uncertainty around the economy, employment, inflation, and borrowing costs.
According to the September market figures, 5,040 homes sold across the GTA, down 9.0% compared with September 2025. At the same time, new listings fell even more sharply, declining 14.4% year over year to 16,500. The GTA-wide average selling price was $1,006,409, down 5.1% from a year earlier.
Those numbers tell a more nuanced story than simply saying the market is “up” or “down.” Prices are more affordable than they were a year ago, but many prospective buyers remain cautious. For sellers, meanwhile, pricing and presentation matter in a market where buyers are paying close attention to value.
Here’s what the September 2026 GTA housing market numbers mean — and what buyers and sellers should be watching next.
GTA Home Sales — What Is Buyer Activity Telling Us?
There were 5,040 GTA home sales in September 2026, representing a 9.0% year-over-year decline.
The decline suggests that many potential buyers have yet to move from considering a purchase to actually making one. Economic uncertainty, employment confidence, inflation, and borrowing costs continue to influence those decisions.
Importantly, that does not necessarily mean buyer demand has disappeared. The September report points to substantial pent-up demand, with households that intend to purchase but are waiting for greater confidence around their finances and longer-term borrowing costs.
For homeowners, that distinction matters. A cautious buyer is not necessarily an absent buyer. Properties that offer the right combination of location, condition and price can still capture attention, but today's buyers are likely to compare their options carefully.
New Listings and GTA Housing Inventory
September saw 16,500 new listings, down 14.4% from September 2025. There were 26,131 active listings, 9.3% below year-ago levels.
The notable point is that new listings declined faster than sales.
For buyers, current conditions can provide opportunities to evaluate available properties and negotiate based on the circumstances of a particular listing. But the GTA is not one uniform market. Available supply can look very different depending on whether you're searching for a detached house, condominium or townhouse — and whether you're looking in Toronto East, Scarborough, Durham Region or another GTA community.
For sellers, fewer new listings do not automatically guarantee less competition. Buyers remain price-conscious, so the competing homes within your immediate neighbourhood and price range are much more relevant than a GTA-wide inventory number.
Toronto and GTA Home Prices in September 2026
The GTA average selling price was $1,006,409, down 5.1% compared with September 2025.
The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark was down 4.7% year over year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, both the HPI Composite and average selling price also edged lower compared with August.
The average price and HPI should not be treated as interchangeable measures. An average selling price can be influenced by the mix of properties sold during a particular month, while the HPI is designed to track changes in the value of a representative home over time.
Property type also makes a considerable difference.
In September, the GTA average price for a detached home was $1,292,016, down 5.1% year over year. Semi-detached homes averaged $1,015,202, down just 0.2%. Townhomes averaged $820,637, down 4.6%, while condominium apartments averaged $605,257, a 7.7% year-over-year decline.
That variation is an important reminder that one GTA average cannot tell you what is happening to the value of a particular home.
What Is Driving the GTA Housing Market?
One of the central themes in September was buyer confidence.
Lower prices compared with last year have improved affordability for prospective purchasers. However, affordability is only part of a home-buying decision.
Potential buyers are also considering employment security, inflation, borrowing costs and the broader economic outlook. The source material notes that many households still intend to buy but want greater confidence in their financial position before proceeding.
This helps explain why lower prices have not automatically translated into higher sales activity.
It also makes the relationship between supply and demand particularly important to watch. If buyer confidence improves, the number of households moving off the sidelines will matter. So will the number and quality of new properties coming onto the market.
What Does the September GTA Market Mean for Buyers?
For buyers who are financially prepared, September's market offers some advantages that were less evident when prices and competition were higher.
The GTA average selling price is below last year's level, and buyers in many situations can take the time to compare properties rather than focusing only on getting an offer accepted.
That doesn't mean every property will be negotiable.
A well-priced home in a sought-after neighbourhood can behave very differently from a property that has been sitting on the market. Recent comparable sales, days on market, competing listings and local demand should all be considered before deciding how much to offer.
Financing preparation is equally important. Knowing what you can comfortably afford before finding the right home puts you in a better position to make a confident decision rather than reacting to broader market headlines.
What Does the Market Mean for Sellers?
September's numbers reinforce the importance of getting the fundamentals right.
Buyers have become increasingly sensitive to price and value. That means starting substantially above what recent comparable sales support can make it harder to generate meaningful interest.
Presentation also matters. When buyers have alternatives, condition, photography, staging, marketing and the overall first impression can influence which properties make the shortlist.
Most importantly, sellers should avoid assuming that a GTA-wide statistic represents their home.
Conditions in Scarborough, Toronto East, Birch Cliff, the Scarborough Bluffs and Clairlea can differ not only from the GTA overall but also from one another. The same is true across surrounding GTA communities. Property type, price range, condition and the number of competing listings all contribute to the local picture.
Are Toronto Home Prices Going Up or Down?
Based on the September 2026 GTA data, home prices were lower than a year earlier.
The GTA average selling price of $1,006,409 was 5.1% below September 2025, while the MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark was down 4.7% year over year.
But that doesn't mean every Toronto home declined by 5.1%.
Even at the GTA level, September's property-type data ranged from a relatively modest 0.2% year-over-year decline for semi-detached homes to a 7.7% decline for condominium apartments.
For an individual homeowner, the better question is: What are comparable homes in my neighbourhood selling for now?
That's where recent local sales become much more useful than a GTA-wide average.
Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell in Toronto?
There isn't one answer that applies to everyone.
For a buyer with secure financing, a longer-term ownership plan and the right property available, lower prices compared with last year may present an opportunity. Waiting solely for the market to reach a particular bottom can be difficult because market turning points are usually clearer in hindsight.
For sellers, the decision may depend more on why you're moving, where you're going next, the value of your current property and conditions within your specific neighbourhood than on the GTA average.
Someone selling and buying in the same market also has different considerations from an investor, first-time buyer or homeowner leaving the GTA.
Rather than trying to perfectly time the entire Toronto housing market, it is usually more useful to understand the market that applies to your particular move.
GTA Real Estate Market Outlook — What to Watch Next
The September numbers don't provide a basis for confidently predicting where GTA home prices will go next.
They do, however, identify several factors worth watching.
Buyer confidence around employment, inflation and borrowing costs will remain important. So will the relationship between new listings and buyer demand, particularly as the fall market progresses.
Future TRREB reports will help show whether buyers are beginning to act on the pent-up demand identified in September and whether available housing supply is keeping pace.
For homeowners, it will also be important to look below the headline GTA figures. Changes in your neighbourhood, property category and price range can emerge before they're obvious in the overall average.
Final Thoughts
September 2026 was a cautious month for the Toronto and GTA housing market.
Sales and new listings were both below last year's levels, while the average selling price and MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark remained lower year over year. At the same time, improved affordability and pent-up demand suggest that there are still prospective buyers interested in entering the market when their circumstances and confidence allow.
For buyers, this is a market where preparation and understanding value matter. For sellers, realistic pricing, presentation and local market knowledge remain critical.
And for both, the most useful information is rarely just the GTA average.
If you're considering buying or selling, or simply want to know what the September numbers mean for your home or neighbourhood, Brian McIntyre can provide a local market analysis and help you understand your options.
Brian McIntyre Real Estate | RE/MAX Hallmark®
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